Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
